dengai-predicting-disease-spread

Problem Description

Your goal is to predict the total_cases label for each (city, year, weekofyear) in the test set. There are two cities, San Juan and Iquitos, with test data for each city spanning 5 and 3 years respectively. You will make one submission that contains predictions for both cities. The data for each city have been concatenated along with a city column indicating the source: sj for San Juan and iq for Iquitos. The test set is a pure future hold-out, meaning the test data are sequential and non-overlapping with any of the training data. Throughout, missing values have been filled as NaNs.

Features

• City and date indicators
  • city – City abbreviations: sj for San Juan and iq for Iquitos
  • week_start_date – Date given in yyyy-mm-dd format
• NOAA's GHCN daily climate data weather station measurements
  • station_max_temp_c – Maximum temperature
  • station_min_temp_c – Minimum temperature
  • station_avg_temp_c – Average temperature
  • station_precip_mm – Total precipitation
  • station_diur_temp_rng_c – Diurnal temperature range
• PERSIANN satellite precipitation measurements (0.25x0.25 degree scale)
  • precipitation_amt_mm – Total precipitation
• NOAA's NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis measurements (0.5x0.5 degree scale)
  • reanalysis_sat_precip_amt_mm – Total precipitation
  • reanalysis_dew_point_temp_k – Mean dew point temperature
  • reanalysis_air_temp_k – Mean air temperature
  • reanalysis_relative_humidity_percent – Mean relative humidity
  • reanalysis_specific_humidity_g_per_kg – Mean specific humidity
  • reanalysis_precip_amt_kg_per_m2 – Total precipitation
  • reanalysis_max_air_temp_k – Maximum air temperature
  • reanalysis_min_air_temp_k – Minimum air temperature
  • reanalysis_avg_temp_k – Average air temperature
  • reanalysis_tdtr_k – Diurnal temperature range
• Satellite vegetation - Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) - NOAA's CDR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (0.5x0.5 degree scale) measurements
  • ndvi_se – Pixel southeast of city centroid
  • ndvi_sw – Pixel southwest of city centroid
  • ndvi_ne – Pixel northeast of city centroid
  • ndvi_nw – Pixel northwest of city centroid

Feature Data Example

For example, a single row in the dataset, indexed by (city, year, weekofyear): (sj, 1994, 18), has these values:

• week_start_date: 1994-05-07
• total_cases: 22
• station_max_temp_c: 33.3
• station_avg_temp_c: 27.7571428571
• station_precip_mm: 10.5
• station_min_temp_c: 22.8
• station_diur_temp_rng_c: 7.7
• precipitation_amt_mm: 68.0
• reanalysis_sat_precip_amt_mm: 68.0
• reanalysis_dew_point_temp_k: 295.235714286
• reanalysis_air_temp_k: 298.927142857
• reanalysis_relative_humidity_percent: 80.3528571429
• reanalysis_specific_humidity_g_per_kg: 16.6214285714
• reanalysis_precip_amt_kg_per_m2: 14.1
• reanalysis_max_air_temp_k: 301.1
• reanalysis_min_air_temp_k: 297.0
• reanalysis_avg_temp_k: 299.092857143
• reanalysis_tdtr_k: 2.67142857143
• ndvi_location_1: 0.1644143
• ndvi_location_2: 0.0652
• ndvi_location_3: 0.1321429
• ndvi_location_4: 0.08175

Performance Metric

Performance is evaluated according to the mean absolute error.

Submission Format

The format for the submission file is simply the (city, year, weekofyear) and the predicted total_cases for San Juan or Iquitos (for an example, see SubmissionFormat.csv on the data download page). The total_cases should be

represented as integer values.

For example, if you just predicted that there were 5 cases each week for 5 weeks in San Juan and 3 cases each week for 5 weeks in Iquitos, for a total of 10 weeks, your predictions might look like this:

city    year    weekofyear    total_cases
sj      2008    18            5
sj      2008    19            5
sj      2008    20            5
sj      2008    21            5
sj      2008    22            5
...
iq      2013    22            3
iq      2013    23            3
iq      2013    24            3
iq      2013    25            3
iq      2013    26            3

Your .csv file that you submit would look like:

city,year,weekofyear,total_cases
sj,2008,18,5
sj,2008,19,5
sj,2008,20,5
sj,2008,21,5
sj,2008,22,5
...
iq,2013,22,3
iq,2013,23,3
iq,2013,24,3
iq,2013,25,3
iq,2013,26,3

Keep in mind that you need to submit one CSV with predictions for both cities! Hence the requirement of the city column. Results will be parsed on our end and MAE scores will be given for each city's predictions.

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